Operation Absolute Resolve — Venezuela Crisis Documentation

On January 3, 2026, the United States executed Operation Absolute Resolve — a precision military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, both indicted in the Southern District of New York on narco-terrorism charges.

This document provides comprehensive real-time documentation compiled during and after the operation.

At a Glance

Critical Developments

• US will directly administer Venezuela until "safe, proper, and judicious transition"
• Venezuelan Vice President sworn in as President — "willing to do what we think is necessary"
• Colombian President Petro warned: "He does have to watch his ass"
• "American armada remains poised in position" — second wave prepared if needed
• Maduro to be transferred to New York for trial

Geopolitical Flashpoints

• ⚠️ CHINA ANGLE: Senior Chinese diplomatic delegation met Maduro HOURS before strike — reportedly still in Caracas at time of operation
• China "firmly opposes" US action — calls it violation of international law
• 🚨 MIDNIGHT HAMMER REVEALED: Trump confirmed previous operation — "the obliteration and decimation of the Iran nuclear sites"

How to Read This Document

This document distinguishes between different levels of verification:

Where claims originate from Trump administration officials, this is noted. Apply appropriate scrutiny to all categories.

Part I: The Operation

Official Operation Timeline

Source: Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — White House Press Conference

Live Documentation Timeline

Confirmed Assets Deployed

Source: Chairman Caine, White House Press Conference

Aircraft (150+)

Launch Points

• 20 bases on land and sea across Western Hemisphere
• Puerto Rico (confirmed staging — "several dozen" fighter jets)

Agencies Involved

Naval Forces (Pre-positioned as of December 1, 2025)

Source: CFR Global Conflict Tracker citing Guardian, Reuters, US Naval Institute News, Congressional Research Service, NPR

Carrier Strike Group (Puerto Rico area):

Amphibious Assault Group:

Additional Vessels:

Total Personnel: 4,500+ sailors and Marines (per CFR) — Trump claimed ~15,000 troops in region

Confirmed Strike Locations

Pattern Assessment:

• Military command (Fuerte Tiuna) = Decapitate leadership
• Airfields (La Carlota, Higuerote) = Air superiority + insertion
• Port (La Guaira) = Block naval escape
• This is textbook regime change operation targeting Maduro directly

Civilian Video Analysis

Source: Luis vitta (social media), posted 2:04 AM local time
Duration: 1:08
Raw video: Twitter video link

Aircraft Analysis:

• Video shows ~15 aircraft in column formation, single file
• Aircraft identified as ROTARY WING: Attack helicopters + CH-47 Chinooks
• NOT fixed-wing strike aircraft — this is a HELICOPTER ASSAULT
• Caught mid-operation — explosions likely Apache weapons clearing LZs
• Formation suggests coordinated troop insertion with attack escort

Force Assessment:

• ~15 helicopters, mix of attack (AH-64 Apache?) and transport (CH-47 Chinook, CH-53?)
• If 7-8 are transports: 280-320+ troops potentially inserted
• Probable objectives: La Carlota airbase, Miraflores Palace, military command centers

Part II: White House Press Conference — Key Excerpts

Time: 11:00 AM ET (16:00 GMT)
Location: White House
Duration: ~1 hour 9 minutes
Source: Official White House stream (@WhiteHouse)
Transcription: Eden Eldith via OpenAI Whisper

President Trump — Opening Statement

On the operation:

"Late last night and early today, at my direction, the United States Armed Forces conducted an extraordinary military operation in the capital of Venezuela. Overwhelming American military power, air, land and sea was used to launch a spectacular assault and it was an assault like people have not seen since World War II."

On previous operations:

"We've done some other good ones like the attack on Soleimani, the attack on al-Baghdadi and the obliteration and decimation of the Iran nuclear sites just recently in an operation known as Midnight Hammer. All perfectly executed and done."

On the night of the raid:

"The lights of Caracas were largely turned off due to a certain expertise that we have. It was dark and it was deadly."

On casualties and equipment:

"Not a single American servicemember was killed and not a single piece of American equipment was lost."

On drug interdiction (OFFICIAL CLAIM):

"We've knocked out 97 percent of the drugs coming in by sea. Each boat kills 25, on average 25,000 people. We knocked out 97 percent. And those drugs mostly come from a place called Venezuela."

On running Venezuela:

"We're going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition... We can't take a chance that somebody else takes over Venezuela that doesn't have the good of the Venezuelan people in mind."

On the Monroe Doctrine:

"All the way back, it dated to the Monroe doctrines, and the Monroe doctrine is a big deal. But we've superseded it by a lot, by a real lot. They now call it the Donro document... Under our new national security strategy, American dominance in the Western hemisphere will never be questioned again."

Warning to others:

"All political and military figures in Venezuela should understand what happened to Maduro can happen to them, and it will happen to them if they aren't just, fair, even to their people."

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth

"Finally, a Commander-in-Chief the world respects and the American people deserve."

"No other country on planet Earth, and it's not even close, could pull this kind of operation off. And no other President has ever shown this kind of leadership, courage and resolve, the most powerful combination the world has ever seen."

On Maduro being given chances:

"Nicolas Maduro had his chance, just like Iran had their chance, until they didn't and until he didn't. He effed around and he found out."

Gen. Dan Caine — Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Operation name and purpose:

"Last night, on the order of the President of the United States, and in support of a request from the Department of Justice... the United States military conducted an apprehension mission in Caracas, Venezuela to bring to justice two indicted persons, Nicolas and Cecilia Maduro."

"This operation, known as Operation Absolute Resolve, was discreet, precise, and conducted during the darkest hours of January 2nd, and was the culmination of months of planning and rehearsal, an operation that, frankly, only the United States military could undertake."

On intelligence gathering:

"After months of work by our intelligence teammates to find Maduro and understand how he moved, where he lived, where he traveled, what he ate, what he wore, what were his pets, in early December our force was set pending a series of aligned events."

Mission timeline:

"At 10:46 p.m. Eastern time last night, the president ordered the United States military to move forward with this mission. He said to us, and we appreciated it, Mr. President, good luck and Godspeed."

On the approach:

"As the night began, the helicopters took off with the extraction force, which included law enforcement officers, and began their flight into Venezuela at 100 feet above the water."

"As they approached Venezuelan shores, the United States began layering different effects provided by Spacecom, Cybercom, and other members of the interagency to create a pathway."

Capture:

"Maduro and his wife, both indicted, gave up and were taken into custody by the Department of Justice, assisted by our incredible U.S. military with professionalism and precision, with no loss of U.S. life."

Exfiltration:

"The force successfully exfiltrated and returned to their afloat launch bases and the force was over the water at 3:29 a.m. Eastern Standard Time with indicted persons on board."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio

On legitimacy:

"Nicolas Maduro was indicted in 2020 in the United States. He is not the legitimate president of Venezuela. That's not just us saying it. The first Trump administration, the Biden administration, the second Trump administration, none of those three recognize him. He's not recognized by the European Union and multiple countries around the world."

"He is a fugitive of American justice with a $50 million reward."

On Maduro's provocations:

"You have a guy who decides he's going to invite Iran into his country, is going to do the confiscation of American oil companies, is going to flood our country with gang members, is going to take Americans prisoner and try to hold them for hostage and trade them like he was able to do with the Biden administration. Basically likes to play games all this time and thinks nothing's going to happen."

Message to the world:

"The 47th president of the United States is not a game player. When he tells you that he's going to do something, when he tells you he's going to address a problem, he means it. He actions it."

"And now if you don't know, now you know. Because this is the way it's going to play out."

Key Q&A Exchanges

On running Venezuela:

Trump: "We're going to be running it... For a period of time, the people that are standing right behind me. We're going to be running it. We're going to be bringing it back."

On boots on the ground:

Reporter: "Does the U.S. running the country mean that U.S. troops will be on the ground?"

Trump: "We're not afraid of boots on the ground if we have to have. We had boots on the ground last night at a very high level, actually. We're not afraid of it. We don't mind saying it."

On the Venezuelan Vice President:

Trump: "She was just sworn in, but she was, as you know, picked by Maduro. So Marco is working on that directly. He just had a conversation with her. And she's essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again."

Trump: "She was quite gracious, but she really doesn't have a choice."

On Colombia — WARNING:

Reporter: "Colombian President Gustavo Petro... said he's not concerned about anything happening to him in the aftermath of this operation."

Trump: "Well, he has cocaine mills. He has factories where he makes cocaine. And yeah, I think I stick by my first statement. He does have to watch his ass."

On Congressional notification:

Rubio: "We called members of Congress immediately after this. This is not the kind of mission that you can do congressional notification on..."

Trump: "Plus, if I could add one thing to that. Congress has a tendency to leak. This would not be good."

On Maduro's capture moment:

Trump: "He was trying to get into a safe place, you know, the safe places, all steel. And he wasn't able to make it to the door because our guys were so fast. They went through the opposition so fast. And there was a lot of opposition... a lot of gunfire."

Trump: "We would have had the door blown up in about 47 seconds, they say, on average, regardless of how thick the steel was. It was a very thick door. It was a very heavy door. But he was unable to get to that door. He made it to the door. He was unable to close it."

On Putin:

Reporter: "Are you mad at him right now?"

Trump: "I'm not thrilled with Putin. I'm not thrilled with Putin. He's killing too many people."

Part III: The China Angle — Critical Development

Timeline

The Delegation

Qiu Xiaoqi (b. 1956) is a career diplomat who previously served as ambassador to Bolivia, Spain, Brazil, and Mexico. This was not a low-level visit.

Meeting Purpose

Per Venezuelan state television and Maduro's Instagram:

• Review of 600+ cooperation agreements between China and Venezuela
• Strategic sectors: energy, infrastructure, technology, financing, political cooperation
• Discussion of "unilateral coercive measures" (US sanctions/blockade)
• Consolidating "the new multipolar world order"

China's Official Response

Posted to @MFA_China on January 3, 2026:

"Such hegemonic acts of the U.S. seriously violate international law and Venezuela's sovereignty, and threaten peace and security in Latin America and the Caribbean region. China firmly opposes it."

"We call on the U.S. to abide by international law and the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, and stop violating other countries' sovereignty and security."

Strategic Context

Critical Questions

1. Did the US know the Chinese delegation was in Caracas?

   • If yes: Deliberate message to Beijing
   • If no: Intelligence failure

2. Were Chinese diplomats present during the strike?

   • Multiple reporters confirm delegation believed to still be in Caracas
   • No reports of departure before strikes

3. What happens to Chinese investments/debt?

   • US now administering Venezuela "until proper transition"
   • 600+ cooperation agreements in limbo

Part IV: This Did Not Start Today — Pre-Operation Context

Pre-Operation Timeline (August 2025 — January 2026)

Sources: Council on Foreign Relations, U.S. Naval Institute News, Congressional Research Service, NPR, CBS News

Key Trump Quotes (Pre-Operation)

• Dec 16: "Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America"
• Christmas Eve: "If Maduro plays tough, it'll be the last time he'll ever be able to play tough"
• Chief of Staff Susie Wiles: "He wants to keep on blowing boats up until Maduro cries uncle"

Part V: The Proxy War Dimension

Why This Matters Beyond Venezuela

The Maduro regime is not isolated — it is embedded in a network of US adversaries:

Maduro Alliance Network (Documented)

Historical parallel: The last US capture of a sitting head of state was Manuel Noriega (Panama, 1989). That operation did not involve a target with Russian troops in-country or Chinese strategic investment.

Part VI: The Department of War

Doctrinal Shift

The 1947 name change to "Defense" was deliberate — signaling America would operate within the post-WWII framework (UN, NATO, international law, "defensive" wars only). The reversion to "War" signals abandonment of that framework.

Legal Status

Key quote from EO rationale:

"The name 'Department of War,' more than the current 'Department of Defense,' ensures peace through strength, as it demonstrates our ability and willingness to fight and win wars on behalf of our Nation at a moment's notice, not just to defend."

Secretary of War: Hon. Pete Hegseth

• Sworn in: January 25, 2025 (as 29th Secretary of Defense)
• Title changed: September 5, 2025 (became Secretary of War)
• Background: Infantry officer, U.S. Army National Guard
• Education: Princeton University, 2003
• Combat deployments: Guantanamo Bay, Iraq, Afghanistan
• Decorations: Two Bronze Star Medals, Joint Commendation Medal, Combat Infantryman Badge (CIB), Expert Infantryman Badge (EIB)
• Author: NYT best-seller The War on Warriors
• Official bio: war.gov

Significance: First Secretary of War since Kenneth Claiborne Royall (1947) — 78 years.

2025 Military Operations Under Department of War

Part VII: Legal Architecture

Use-of-Force Legality Framework

Under international law, use of military force against another state typically requires one of:

US rationale presented: Law enforcement arrest of indicted fugitives + counter-terrorism operation against FTO-designated organizations, supported by domestic legal authorities (secret Pentagon directive, armed conflict notification to Congress, "unlawful armed combatants" designation).

Contested views: Critics argue this constitutes regime change / act of war against sovereign state regardless of legal framing; War Powers Act requires Congressional notification; unilateral military action without UN authorization violates international law.

Legal Framework Construction

The Trump administration constructed this legal framework over months:

Result: The administration characterizes this as a law enforcement operation to arrest indicted fugitives and neutralize designated terrorist organizations — NOT as an invasion or act of war against a sovereign state.

Whether international law agrees is a separate question.

Part VIII: Key Figures

NICOLÁS MADURO MOROS — CAPTURED

US Criminal Charges (March 26, 2020):

• Narco-terrorism conspiracy
• Conspiracy to import cocaine into United States
• Possession/use of machine guns in furtherance of crimes
• Alleged leadership of "Cartel de los Soles"
• Alleged collaboration with FARC (designated FTO)

Bounty: $50 MILLION

OFAC Designation: VENEZUELA + IRAN-CON-ARMS-EO (Iran arms sanctions link — direct evidence of Iranian weapons deals)

International Status:

• Indicted by US DOJ
• Under ICC investigation for crimes against humanity
• Non-recognized as legitimate president by US, EU, Canada, most of OAS
• Recognized by Russia, China, Iran, Cuba, Turkey

CILIA FLORES DE MADURO — CAPTURED

US Criminal Charges: Narco-terrorism (indicted Southern District of New York)

VLADIMIR PADRINO LÓPEZ — STATUS UNKNOWN

Name Note: "Vladimir" is ideological inheritance — Cold War era Venezuelan leftist families named children after Soviet figures. Cultural marker of allegiance ecosystem, not Russian nationality.

US Criminal Charges (May 24, 2019):

• Conspiracy to distribute cocaine on US-registered aircraft
• Alleged participation in "Cartel de los Soles" protection racket
• Alleged facilitation of multi-ton cocaine shipments

Training: School of the Americas, Fort Benning, Georgia, USA (1995) — counterinsurgency and urban warfare

HÉCTOR "NIÑO GUERRERO" GUERRERO FLORES — STATUS UNKNOWN

Part IX: OFAC SDN Analysis — Sanctions Infrastructure

Analysis conducted: 03/01/2026
Source: OFAC SDN List
Total SDN entries analyzed: 18,509

Global Sanctions Landscape

Venezuela is 4th-largest country sanctions program — substantial but dwarfed by Russia sanctions.

Venezuela Program (414 entries)

Tren de Aragua SDN Entries (15 total)

Organization designation: FTO (Foreign Terrorist Organization) + SDGT + TCO

All FTO-Designated Cartels (11 organizations)

Venezuela has 2 of 11 FTO-designated cartels — provides legal basis for treating Venezuelan territory as counter-terrorism theater.

Part X: CBP Intelligence Bulletins — Primary Source

Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Office of Intelligence
Classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY/LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE

Three separate intelligence products:

Key Intelligence Findings

A) Leadership Structure:

• Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores aka "Niño Guerrero" (DOB: 2 December 1983)

  • Led TdA since inception
  • Serving 17-year sentence for murder and drug trafficking
  • Escaped Tocorón Prison September 2023
  • Current location: UNKNOWN

• Yohan Jose Romero aka "Johan Petrica" (DOB: 31 October 1977)

  • Co-founder
  • Controls military sector
  • Provides TdA "most of the military grade weapons"
  • Fighting against Colombian guerrillas

B) Criminal Activities (Official Assessment):

• Human smuggling
• Extortion
• Drug/weapons trafficking
• Sex trafficking
• Debt bondage
• Forced labor
• Kidnapping
• Organized retail crime
• Robberies
• Document fraud
• "Targeting migrants fleeing from countries' socio-, political, economic crises"
• "Smuggling people, especially migrant women and girls, across borders"

C) Geographic Presence:

D) Threat Assessment (Direct Quote):

"TdA's threat of violent tactics will continue exponentially as the group establishes a larger presence in North/Central America."

"TdA's presence in the US presents risk for rivalry violence against competing criminal organizations. In addition, TdA's presence in the US presents a risk for violence toward the local civilian populace, law enforcement agencies, and government officials."

E) Timeline of Intelligence Buildup:

Part XI: The Trump Administration's Case

Source: InSight Crime, "Tren de Aragua: From Prison Gang to Transnational Criminal Enterprise" (October 2023)

Venezuelan Government Created the Conditions

"The government decided to essentially do nothing, and deliver the jails to the prisoners." — Roberto Briceño León, Venezuelan Violence Observatory

• 2011: Prison ministry under Iris Varela (Chavez loyalist) instituted policy of devolving power to gang bosses ("pranes")
• Tocorón prison became TdA headquarters — complete with swimming pool, zoo, nightclub, baseball stadium
• Gang operated with "near-total impunity" from within prison walls
• September 2023: 11,000 troops raided Tocorón, but leadership escaped — "likely thanks to a tip-off, or perhaps even a negotiated exit"

Scale of Criminal Enterprise

Exploitation of 8 Million Migrants

"Whereas the world looked at this mass migration and saw a humanitarian crisis, Tren de Aragua saw a business opportunity, and it took full advantage."

Violence as Control Mechanism

"There are houses where they did horrible things. Torture and homicides. I've heard they buried or burned people alive." — Migrant in northern Chile

• Dismembered bodies dumped on street corners
• Videos of murders circulated to intimidate
• Sex workers killed for refusing extortion, murders publicized
• "There are no more Peruvian pimps [in Lima]. Why? Because [Tren de Aragua] killed them."

The Administration's Logic

The administration's position: Venezuela is not just harboring criminals, it created the conditions for them, enables their operations, and the regime is either complicit or incapable of stopping them. Therefore: military action against the source.

Part XII: Source Links

Primary Sources — Official

Primary News Sources — Western

OSINT / Social Media

Background / Analysis

Part XIII: Source Quality Guide

Outstanding Questions

Appendix A: The Pelosi Case Study — Statistical Evidence of Media Blind Spots

Why This Is Relevant

The same outlets that failed to investigate the $9 billion Somalia fraud for years (until a YouTuber exposed it in a day) are the same outlets that have never statistically analysed publicly available congressional trading data. The pattern: protect political allies, ignore mathematical proof.

What Is Chi-Square Analysis?

Chi-square (χ²) goodness-of-fit test is a statistical method that answers one question: "Is this pattern explainable by random chance?"

Interpretation:

• p < 0.05 = Statistically significant (less than 5% chance it's luck)
• p < 0.01 = Highly significant (less than 1% chance)
• p < 0.001 = Extremely significant (less than 0.1% chance)

The Pelosi Analysis

Conducted: January 3, 2026
Analyst: Eden Eldith + Claude
Data sources: Capitol Trades, Unusual Whales, House Stock Watcher, SEC STOCK Act filings, Quiver Quantitative

Raw Results

Top 5 Trades (by excess return vs S&P 500)

Note: The FB trade on 2020-03-03 was near the COVID market bottom. The TSLA trade on 2020-12-22 preceded the S&P 500 inclusion announcement.

Statistical Tests (4 independent methods)

All four tests reject the null hypothesis.

The Verdict

THIS IS NOT LUCK.

Win rate: 26/32 trades beat the market (81.2%)
Mean excess return: +6.02% per trade

The probability of this performance occurring by random chance is approximately 1 in 4,914.

EITHER:

• Nancy Pelosi is one of the greatest traders in history, OR
• She has access to material non-public information

One of these explanations is more plausible than the other.

95% Confidence Interval for win rate: [67.7%, 94.8%]

Random chance would centre at 50%. Her worst case lower bound is still 67.7%.

The Enforcement Gap

Why No Investigation?

The data is PUBLIC. STOCK Act disclosures are freely available. Any journalist with basic statistical literacy could run this analysis in an afternoon.

They haven't.

The same outlets that:

• Ignored $9B Somalia fraud until a YouTuber exposed it
• Called Nick Shirley's investigation "without proof" despite 62+ convictions
• Frame Venezuelan celebrations as concerning rather than celebratory

...have never run a Chi-square test on publicly available congressional trading data.

This is not incompetence. This is editorial choice.

Reproducibility

The full Python analysis script (pelosi_analysis_v2.py) and results (pelosi_analysis_results.txt) are available. The methodology uses standard scipy statistical functions and publicly sourced trade data.

Any competent data analyst can reproduce these results.

Document Metadata

"He effed around and he found out." — Secretary of War Pete Hegseth