World Intelligence Report — February 2026

Compiled by: Eden Eldith & Claude (Anthropic)
Coverage Period: January 13, 2026 — February 13, 2026
Last Updated: @130220261200

Executive Summary

The month following our January 2026 Intelligence Report report has seen the geopolitical landscape shift from kinetic action to diplomatic manoeuvring — though the military pressure underpinning every negotiation has only intensified. Four major storylines define this period:

1. Iran — From Revolution to Nuclear Talks — The uprising that dominated January was met with the deadliest crackdown since 1979 (6,159+ killed, 50,000+ arrested), forcing the regime to the negotiating table. The first US-Iran talks in years were held in Oman on February 6th, with Trump saying a deal could resolve within a month. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was absent from the revolution anniversary celebrations for the first time in 36 years. ^[1]

2. Venezuela — One Month After Maduro — Operation Absolute Resolve's aftermath has not produced the democratic transition many expected. Acting President Delcy Rodríguez governs with US cooperation, opposition leader Machado remains sidelined, and Trump appears primarily interested in Venezuela's oil. Protests are surging as repression eases. ^[2]

3. Russia-Ukraine — The Talking War — Historic trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi (Jan 23-24, Feb 1) brought Russia, Ukraine, and the US to the same table for the first time. No breakthrough emerged beyond a 157-prisoner exchange and restored military hotlines. Trump's self-imposed June 2026 deadline looms. ^[3]

4. UK Strategic Pivot — Britain has simultaneously doubled troops in Norway, launched NATO Arctic Sentry, prepared SBS teams for shadow fleet seizures, survived a near-leadership coup over the Mandelson-Epstein scandal, cut climate finance by 20%, and committed to 2.6% GDP defence spending from 2027. ^[4]

Global Volatility Index: 89.7/100 (CRITICAL) — Sustained at critical levels throughout the entire reporting period, peaking at 92.7 on January 15th. ^[5]

Part I: Iran — From Revolution to Nuclear Talks

The Crackdown

The uprising documented in our January report entered its most brutal phase in the first weeks of this period. On January 8th, security forces launched a crackdown so severe that observers described it as unprecedented in scale since 1979. ^[1:1]

The regime deployed approximately 800 Iraqi Shia militia members under the cover of "pilgrimage" to assist in suppression. Hospitals were raided, with doctors and nurses who treated injured protesters threatened, interrogated, or arrested. The IRGC's street-level defeat documented in January was reversed through sheer brutality. ^[6]

The Diplomatic Pivot

Having crushed the visible uprising, Tehran pivoted to diplomacy. On February 6th, the first US-Iran indirect talks in years were held in Oman — Iran's insisted venue after rejecting the original Istanbul location. ^[7]

The format was notable: Iran's delegation presented its plan to Oman's foreign minister, who relayed it to the US team led by envoy Steve Witkoff. In a clear signal of the military dimension, the US brought Admiral Brad Cooper, head of Central Command, to the table — with the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group positioned off Iran's coast. ^[7:1]

Both sides declared the talks productive. Trump called them "very good" and said a deal could resolve within a month. Iran's President Pezeshkian called them a "step forward." ^[8]

The Red Lines

Despite the diplomatic language, fundamental incompatibilities remain:

• Iran's position: Missiles are "non-negotiable." Enrichment continues. Talks limited to nuclear programme only. ^[9]
• US position: No enrichment under any deal. Talks must cover nuclear programme, ballistic missiles, proxy groups, and treatment of own people. ^[10]

Ali Shamkhani, Khamenei's adviser, declared that "the Islamic Republic's missile capabilities are non-negotiable." Secretary of State Rubio insisted on comprehensive scope. These positions are mutually exclusive in their current form.

Khamenei's Absence

In what may be the most telling signal, Supreme Leader Khamenei was absent from the February 11th celebrations marking the 1979 revolution anniversary — the first time in his 36-year rule he has missed the event. He also skipped a symbolic annual meeting with army and air force commanders. ^[11]

The EU has now listed the IRGC as a terrorist organisation over the protest crackdown. The UK condemned the violence "in the strongest terms." Australia imposed sanctions on 20 IRGC individuals and 3 entities. ^[12]

Prediction Markets Update

Reza Pahlavi has designated February 14, 2026 as a "global day of action," calling for massive diaspora rallies worldwide. The revolution is suppressed but not dead — student protests have resumed on university campuses, and the economic conditions that sparked the uprising (44-45% inflation, rial collapse) remain unchanged. ^[13]

Part II: Venezuela — One Month After Maduro

The Trial

Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores were transported to New York City following capture and pleaded not guilty in Manhattan federal court on January 5th to narco-terrorism charges. According to Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, at least 100 people died and 100 were wounded during Operation Absolute Resolve — a stark contrast to the US claim of zero casualties on their side. ^[2:1]

The Rodríguez Government

The outcome nobody predicted: rather than installing opposition leader María Corina Machado, the Trump administration is working cooperatively with Delcy Rodríguez — Maduro's vice president and a lifelong Chavista — who assumed acting president after the Supreme Court declared Maduro's capture a "forced absence." ^[14]

As RAND noted: "Regime decapitation does not equal regime change." The ruling structure remains largely intact.

The Three-Phase Plan

Secretary of State Rubio outlined the US approach to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on January 28th: ^[15]

1. Stabilisation — Secure order and prevent power vacuum
2. Recovery — Create mechanisms for selling sanctioned Venezuelan oil at market prices, with proceeds going into Venezuelan accounts in Qatar
3. Transition — Guide toward democratic governance

Trump has stated his intention to control Venezuela's vast oil resources and appears comfortable with the Rodríguez arrangement. The opposition remains baffled.

On the Ground

Venezuelans remain cautious. No large demonstrations celebrating Maduro's capture have occurred — the fear apparatus, even weakened, still operates. But protests are increasing as the repressive lid lifts, and early signs of cooperation between Rodríguez and Trump are giving way to growing friction. ^[16]

Part III: Russia-Ukraine — The Talking War

Abu Dhabi: The Historic Table

For the first time since the invasion began, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States sat in structured trilateral dialogue. The inaugural session on January 23-24 in Abu Dhabi was followed by a second round opening February 1st. ^[3:1]

Ukraine sent chief negotiator Rustem Umerov and military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov. Russia sent military intelligence and army representatives. The US was represented by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

The Result: Almost Nothing

Russia refuses a ceasefire before a comprehensive political settlement. Their demands remain: Ukrainian "neutrality," "demilitarisation," and "denazification" — which in practice means Ukraine surrendering its right to choose alliances or defend itself. ^[17]

The Security Guarantee Framework

Where January's Coalition of the Willing summit produced pledges, February saw those pledges crystallise:

• UK and France will co-command the Multinational Force for Ukraine (MFU) and deploy troops to Ukrainian territory if a ceasefire is reached ^[18]
• The United States will lead ceasefire monitoring and provide backstop security guarantees ^[18:1]
• NATO has reaffirmed collective defence commitments
• The UK has been handed leadership of NATO's Norfolk command, focusing on the alliance's northern flank ^[4:1]

Trump's Deadline

Trump has repeatedly said a deal is close and set a self-imposed June 2026 deadline. He announced Putin had agreed to stop strikes on energy targets for a week due to cold weather — though the Kremlin only confirmed a halt on energy infrastructure until Sunday. ^[19]

The 300,000 residents of Odesa left without power or water after Russian drone strikes on February 12th demonstrate the gap between diplomatic optimism and ground reality. ^[20]

Part IV: Shadow Fleet — The Net Tightens

From Seizure to Strategy

January's dramatic Marinera seizure has evolved into a systematic campaign. The UK is now preparing Special Boat Service teams for maritime interdictions against tankers transporting sanctioned Russian oil under false flags. ^[21]

The Escalation Ladder

Data from Lloyd's List Intelligence shows 23 shadow fleet vessels using false or fraudulent flags were detected in the English Channel and Baltic Sea in January alone. ^[22]

Russia's Response

Moscow is adapting:

• Re-registering shadow tankers under the Russian state flag for diplomatic protection
• Deploying armed security teams on some Baltic Sea shadow fleet vessels to resist interdiction
• Russian Ambassador Kelin warned seizures "would not go unpunished" ^[23]

UK's New Capabilities

The Royal Navy is building a new surveillance base in northeast England to monitor suspected shadow fleet vessels using drones and uncrewed surface vessels. Combined with the UK's 500+ sanctioned ships and the Lunna House Agreement with Norway for joint submarine-hunting operations, Britain is building a persistent maritime surveillance network across the northern approaches. ^[24]

Russia's oil revenue remains down 27% compared to October 2024 — the lowest since the invasion began. The CSIS assessment from January that "the US and its partners can set a goal to drive Russia crude shipment value to below profitability" is becoming operational reality. ^[25]

Part V: UK Strategic Pivot — The Arctic and Beyond

Troops in the Snow

Defence Secretary John Healey confirmed British troops deployed to Norway will double over three years from 1,000 to 2,000 personnel. This comes alongside the deployment of 1,500 Royal Marine Commandos for NATO's Exercise Cold Response in March — a 25,000-strong exercise across Norway, Finland, and Sweden involving 14 nations. ^[26]

NATO Arctic Sentry

Launched on February 11th, Arctic Sentry is NATO's newest "increased vigilance activity" under the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, joining Baltic Sentry and Eastern Sentry. The UK Armed Forces are confirmed as playing a vital role. ^[27]

Healey's assessment: "Russia poses the greatest threat to Arctic and High North security that we have seen since the Cold War. We see Putin rapidly re-establishing military presence in the region, including reopening old Cold War bases." ^[26:1]

The Lunna House Framework

The December 2025 Lunna House Agreement with Norway established:

• Joint UK-Norway operation of submarine-hunting Type 26 warships
• Expanded joint Arctic training programmes
• Pre-positioned British military equipment in Norway for crisis readiness
• UK takeover of NATO's Norfolk command (northern flank focus) ^[28]

Defence Spending

The UK has committed to the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War — hitting 2.6% of GDP from 2027. Given the £28bn defence spending gap identified in January, this represents a significant but insufficient step toward meeting the demands of simultaneous Arctic, Atlantic, and European commitments. ^[29]

Part VI: UK Domestic Crisis — The Mandelson-Epstein Fallout

What Happened

The release of further Epstein files triggered the most serious challenge to Keir Starmer's leadership since he became Prime Minister. The crisis centres not on Starmer himself — who never knew Epstein (Apparently, highly doubtful, Epstein was prolific.) — but on his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as UK Ambassador to Washington in 2024, despite knowing of Mandelson's friendship with the convicted sex offender. ^[30]

The Revelations

Documents and emails suggest Mandelson may have received payments from Epstein and passed sensitive government information to him during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Mandelson is now facing a police investigation with his two properties being searched for potential misconduct in public office. ^[30:1]

The Domino Effect

The Succession Question

The challenge was averted — for now. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said Labour MPs had "looked over the precipice and they didn't like what they saw." But the damage is done: ^[31]

• Angela Rayner — "Rayner for leader" website launched
• Wes Streeting — Considered most likely centrist challenger
• Ed Miliband — Former leader, positioned as unity candidate
• Andy Burnham — Recently blocked from by-election that could have returned him to parliament

Labour consistently trails Reform UK in polls. Female Labour MPs are demanding Starmer appoint a woman as de facto deputy to address the "boys' club" perception. ^[32]

Starmer's China Gambit

Against this domestic chaos, Starmer's late-January trip to Beijing produced:

• Visa-free travel agreement between UK and China
• China lifting sanctions on six British MPs and peers
• Progress on tariff discussions
• Deepened economic cooperation signals ^[33]

The strategic calculation — pivot toward China while the US focuses elsewhere — risks further straining the UK-US relationship at precisely the moment Britain needs American support for its Arctic and Atlantic commitments.

Economic Context

Part VII: The Cyber Battlespace

Persistent Threat

The NCSC's warning of four "nationally significant" cyber attacks per week has been consistent throughout this reporting period. This is not a spike — it is the new baseline. ^[34]

Key Developments

• Russian GRU espionage tool — The NCSC publicly attributed a persistent malware campaign targeting Cisco network devices to Russian military intelligence ^[35]
• Hacktivist groups — NCSC issued specific warnings about hacktivist groups disrupting UK organisations and online services, linked to Russian-aligned actors ^[36]
• Drone incidents — Near UK military bases have doubled year-on-year ^[37]
• Supply chain attacks — Ongoing warnings about compromise of network infrastructure equipment

The cyber dimension is no longer a supporting element of geopolitical competition — it is a primary theatre. The doubling of drone incidents near UK bases, combined with the persistent malware campaigns and hacktivist disruption, represents a continuous low-level assault on British infrastructure that sits below the threshold of kinetic response but above the threshold of acceptable risk. Where Britain has no AI industry of its own, this leaves it in a vulnerable and precarious state. Partnerships with anthropic highlight overseas efforts, but from what I can tell there are not many people out there who have trained AI locally, at home, on consumer hardware, as a British citizen. I'm one of these (see work here at Zenodo)

Part VIII: Volatility Trends

30-Day Volatility Summary

The volatility index has remained in the CRITICAL band (85-100) for the entire reporting period, with an average of 89.5/100. The January 15th peak of 92.7 coincided with the height of the Iran crackdown, anomaly detections in military, cyber, and disaster categories, and escalating shadow fleet operations.

The February 12th spike to 90.6 correlates with the South Sudan conflict escalation, Odesa strikes, and the approaching New START treaty expiration.

Part IX: Watch List — Next 14 Days

Critical Indicators

1. US-Iran nuclear talks — Round 2 — Date unconfirmed but expected within days. Trump's "one month" timeline places a deal-or-escalation fork around mid-March. Watch for a second aircraft carrier deployment as pressure signal. ^[8:1]

2. Reza Pahlavi's Global Day of Action — February 14 — Diaspora protests worldwide. If these coincide with renewed domestic unrest, the regime faces a two-front challenge. ^[13:1]

3. Ukraine trilateral talks — Round 3 — Possible Florida venue. Trump's June deadline creates urgency. Watch for territorial concession signals or frozen-conflict framing. ^[3:2]

4. UK shadow fleet seizure — SBS preparations suggest imminent action. Russia's armed security teams on tankers raise the risk of confrontation during boarding operations. ^[21:1]

5. NATO Exercise Cold Response (March) — 25,000 troops, 14 nations, Norway-Finland-Sweden. Russia's response to this Arctic show of force will indicate their threat perception. ^[26:2]

6. Starmer's survival — The leadership challenge is averted, not resolved. By-election results, poll numbers, and any further Epstein file releases could reignite the crisis at any moment. ^[31:1]

7. New START expiration — The last major US-Russia nuclear arms control treaty has expired. No replacement framework exists. This removes a key guardrail from the most dangerous bilateral relationship on earth. ^[38]

Signals to Watch

Methodology

This report synthesizes twelve primary source documents generated by the World Monitor OSINT Intelligence Tracker between January 13 and February 12, 2026, supplemented by targeted web research conducted on February 13, 2026:

1. World Monitor Reports (Jan 13, 15, 18, 20, 22, 24, 29) — Late January coverage capturing the immediate aftermath of events documented in the January consolidated report, including the Iran crackdown escalation, Greenland tensions, UK-China diplomatic developments, and continued shadow fleet operations. ^[5:1]

2. World Monitor Reports (Feb 3, 7, 9, 11, 12) — February coverage documenting the shift from kinetic action to diplomacy across multiple theatres, the Mandelson-Epstein crisis, UK Arctic pivot, and sustained cyber threats. ^[5:2]

3. January 2026 Consolidated Intelligence Report — Baseline document providing continuity for all tracked storylines. ^[39]

4. Web research (Feb 13) — Supplementary searches covering Iran nuclear talks, Venezuela post-Maduro, Ukraine trilateral talks, shadow fleet operations, UK Arctic deployment, and the Starmer leadership crisis.

Total articles scanned across all source reports: 13,049
Average volatility index: 89.7/100 (CRITICAL)
Reporting cadence: 12 source reports over 31 days

All claims are sourced to verifiable reporting. Where sources conflict or claims are unverified, this is noted. The purpose is faithful, honest documentation of events as they occur — not editorial framing.

Closing Assessment

If January 2026 was the month the post-WWII order shattered, February was the month everyone started negotiating over the pieces.

The United States is simultaneously talking to Iran about nuclear weapons, talking to Russia about Ukraine, administering Venezuela through a Chavista proxy, pressuring Denmark over Greenland, and maintaining carrier strike groups in the Gulf and the Western Pacific. Every conversation happens in the shadow of military force already deployed or demonstrably willing to be used.

Britain is attempting something equally ambitious with far fewer resources: pivoting to the Arctic while maintaining Atlantic commitments, preparing for shadow fleet confrontations while navigating a domestic political crisis, deepening ties with China while remaining America's closest ally, and committing to historic defence spending increases while cutting climate finance and running an economy at 0.1% growth.

The Iran situation crystallises the broader pattern. A genuine popular revolution was crushed with 6,000+ deaths, and within weeks both sides were at a negotiating table in Oman — the revolutionaries forgotten, their sacrifice leveraged as diplomatic backdrop. The Supreme Leader hides from his own anniversary celebrations, but the talks proceed on his terms: missiles off the table, enrichment non-negotiable.

The question from January — "what happens next?" — has an interim answer: everyone talks while everyone arms. The June deadline for Ukraine, the "one month" timeline for Iran, the imminent shadow fleet seizures, the Arctic exercises — all converge in Q2 2026.

The volatility index hasn't dropped below 86 in 31 days. That's not a crisis. That's the new normal.

References

Document compiled by Eden Eldith & Claude (Anthropic)
Original: @130220261200